Nate Silver discusses how much of a convention bounce Romney is likely to get in his polling over the next week. I have no doubt Romney will assume a thin lead in the polling, which will be trumpeted with much fanfare, and will prove to be countered by a similar thin convention bounce to Obama after the Dems' convention (assuming no other major factors come into play).
What's fascinating to me is seeing how convention bounces have dropped in size over the years, alongside convention ratings — just as conventions have finished changing from engaging, raucous battles of political ideologies and leadership struggles to highly-scripted coronation infomercials (on both sides of the aisle).
Embedded Link
Aug. 31: TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce
The mediocre television ratings for the Republican National Convention are one sign that Mitt Romney's convention bounce could be fairly modest.
Google+: View post on Google+