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Predicting the next flop

What would happen if you could find individuals who always choose the products who are going to fail? Would that be helpful as, sort of, an anti-focus group?

'Let’s say that some chap — let’s call him “Herb Inger” — simply adored Clairol’s Touch of Yogurt shampoo. He couldn’t get enough of Frito-Lay’s lemonade (nothing says “thirst-quenching” like salty potato chips, after all). He snapped up Bic’s range of disposable underpants. Knowing this, you get hold of Herb and you let him try out your new product, a zesty Cayenne Pepper eyewash. He loves it. Now you know all you need to know. The product is doomed, and you can quietly kill it while it is still small enough to drown in your bathtub.

A cute idea in theory — does it work in practice? Apparently so.'

http://timharford.com/2015/09/meet-the-flop-pickers/

Such people do seem to actually exist, going from one product to another (in various categories) and always getting frustrated how their latest favorite thing has been discontinued.

It's only been tested in a convenience store setting, and there's apparently no other identifiable criteria for these folk. It's unclear if it would work with, say, TV shows — though that might explain the track record of so many shows I've really enjoyed over the years.

 

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5 thoughts on “Predicting the next flop”

  1. A friend of mine was on a constant search for fruit gums. Every time he found a brand he liked they would ruin it by changing the formula… “Now with REAL fruit juice!”, necessitating a new hunt for jellies that were full of artificial flavours.

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